The past week has seen a great deal of speculation about the fate of Comprehensive Immigration Reform (CIR). The Massachusetts special election and the President's State of the Union address have both led many to conclude that CIR is unlikely to be considered in this session of Congress. That conclusion may well be correct, but for entirely different reasons.

As Napoleon once observed "Ask me for anything by time." The problem that CIR faces in February, 2010 is time. Health care reform was supposed to have been passed last August. Now, with Groundhog Day approaching, health care reform's status is still uncertain. As long as it is on the calendar, there is no way that CIR will be considered.

The President reaffirmed his desire to see immigration reform enacted during his State of the Union address. He also called for a new jobs bill, however, and that proposal will move into line ahead of CIR, leaving even less time available.

Senator Schumer continues to insist that CIR will be considered and passed this session. How  much of that is an honest assessment, as opposed to simply trying to keep up the spirits of CIR proponents, is anyone's guess.

The special election in Massachusetts really isn't all that significant. Without Republican support, which it has, CIR cannot be passed. Not all Republicans oppose CIR and not all Democrats support it. The votes appear to be there for passage of CIR - the problem is time.

The next month will be decisive. Either legislation will be introduced or it won't. If it is, then there is a limited window of opportunity in which CIR can still be passed. There is also the possibility of CIR receiving initial consideration this Spring, with final action in a "lame duck" session of Congress following the November election.